The dirty dozen
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When the new Portland city charter passed, I predicted that it wouldn't help the city get out of its current slump – quite the opposite. I forecast that somewhere between four and seven of the 12 members of the new City Council would be far-left extremists who would impede progress.
Now that the election results have been more or less settled, I'd say my predictive powers were pretty good. Which is too bad.
Who did we get in this new system, with 12 bobbleheads, from four districts, and all three from each district elected at the same time, using the goofiest version of "rank choice" vote-counting imaginable? Read it and weep.
Three literal socialists
It's hard to fathom, but three of the winners – Mitch Green (District 4), Sameer Kanal (District 2), and Tiffany Koyama Lane (District 3) – are card-carrying members of the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. These are the misfits who sit around dreaming up insane new taxes and other ways to Eat The Rich™. They make no bones about what they're about: "We reject all forms of exploitation & oppression and organize with the goal of ending capitalism." Nothing could destroy Portland faster than these comrades' agenda. And they make up a quarter of the City Council, so we'll need six of the other nine to keep them in check. Good luck with that.
Hardesty 2.0 and Rubio 2.0
We also got Candace Avalos (District 1), the queen of the commission that cooked up the awful happy meal that the charter revision turned out to be. She'll be Fighting The Man™ tooth and nail as she enjoys the paycheck she managed to guarantee herself. Nonprofit grifters, yes! Cops, no! And she'll no doubt be joined in her extreme ways by Angelita Morillo (District 3), a former Jo Ann "With the Bullhorn" Hardesty staffer.
So we're up to five progress-blockers out of 12. We'd need every single one of the others to be smart, motivated grownups in order to get anything serious accomplished. But look who else we're talking about.
Three hacks
Next up we find Loretta Smith (District 1), who warmed a seat on the Multnomah County commission for years before being term-limited out. Since then she's run for the city council two or three times, and then for Congress, which was pretty laughable. She's been lunging around looking for another government paycheck for a lot of her working life. Her big qualification to govern seems to be that she worked for Ron "Gatsby" Wyden, himself an avatar of non-accomplishment. I believe she was a receptionist for Old Ron, but over time and campaigns she seems to have morphed into a former "senior policy advisor." Too funny. Will she stand up to the five aforesaid wild people? No.
Also in the ranks of the tired is Steve Novick (District 3), who was so bad the last time he was on the council that the public voted in Chloe Eudaly instead. Now he's back, self-proclaimed genius and darling of the Willamette Weed, to work some of that Novick Magick. What a strange guy; I wouldn't count on him for much.
And then there's Dan Ryan (District 2), who's been on the council for four years and is muddling along as the only survivor of charter change. Ryan's only accomplishment seems to have been getting a few tiny-house homeless "villages" rammed into neighborhoods that didn't want them. When the chips are down, I'll bet he will go along to get along.
Four Usual Suspects
The last four are newcomers, but every one of them has been knocking around in the bureaucracy for many years, and three of them don't seem to have much new to offer. Olivia Clark, the slam-dunk winner in District 4, was a John Kitzhaber staffer and drew a paycheck as a Tri-Met suit for a long time. Something about her screams "Ginny Burdick 2.0," which means a lot of drift.
Elana Pirtle-Guiney (District 2) was a Kate Brown staffer and an apologist for the city parks department, which no longer has money to maintain anything and needs new taxes at every turn. It doesn't take her long to start gushing about all the value inherent in the "Albina Vision" scam. The developer weasels' sweetheart, it seems. A positive change agent, she isn't.
Which brings us to Jamie Dunphy (District 1). Another Nick Fish protegé (a la Carmen Rubio), he's also worked for Jeff Merkley. And so he's got years and years of failure that he'll double down on rather than admit. Already he's a softy when it comes to moving the tent junkies along.
Finally, Eric Zimmerman (District 4) is currently on the payroll of Julia Brim-Edwards on the county commission. The bureaucrat background is bad, but at least his boss has been pretty much an adult. Zimmerman talks sense on several issues, which is refreshing, but he also natters on about "good neighbor agreements" and other empty government-speak that may drive thinking constituents crazy. I would have preferred Eli Arnold, the Portland police officer, in this seat, but Zimmerman may turn out okay if he doesn't get eaten alive by his colleagues.
So there you have it, your new City Council! (Zimmerman's and Dunphy's victories are not a lock yet, but I think they'll prevail in the end.)
You look at this lineup, and you have to think, Portland will be lucky to tread water for the next few years. More likely it will sink further into the abyss. This is what Avalos and the unknown people pulling her strings wanted with the ill-advised charter revision. Well, it isn't going to be pretty.
My guess is that Novick and/or Pirtle-Guiney will be will be the "swing" votes to get a 7-member on council votes. They seem to be the dividing line between the far-left and the center-left members. If I'm right, this gives them massive power, and one of them might end up a Council President.
ReplyDeleteThat said, Loretta Smith is so transactional and policy-free, she could also be the swing vote if there's something in it for her.
Novick may use his experience as a former council member to bully the others. But then again, Novick is a bully, and he may quickly rub his fellow councilors the wrong way. So, my bet is on Pirtle-Guiney being the swing vote who can make changes to legislation.
My big fear are the authoritarians on the council: Members who think they can make people do things just by passing an ordinance. I would put Novick, Avalos, Koyama Lane, and Morillo in this category. Those are the folks to watch out for.
“Far Left” is just a different label for Communism.
ReplyDeleteSeriously??? You weird.
DeletePrediction. They’ll spend the first four months passing hollow resolutions reaffirming Portland’s commitment to greenhouse gas reduction, sanctuary city status for houseless and undocumented persons and abortion seekers, resistance to Trump etc. Come late May/early June it will dawn on many of them (the exceptions being the Hacks and the usual suspects) that they are obligated to pass a budget in a declining revenue environment. At that point, the meltdowns will commence.
ReplyDeleteI feel bad for Bob Day. The police bureau is going to get way defunded.
DeleteWill they take any action of the nuclear threat? I love, love, love what Portland is doing to itself
ReplyDeleteThese weasels, combined with the new County Commissioners, mean no improvement in these parts for a long time. I see smart money cashing out of Portland, leaving mostly hipsters and ideologues who can never hope to fill the hole left by the declining tax revenue.
ReplyDeleteHopefully, denial will get cured before the collapse
DeleteDon’t bet on that! Portland is a rotting corpse.
DeleteThe slight, possibly light-filled glimmer - District 3 electees are only in office for 2 years. One of the other districts as well. So about the time everyone is settled in and passing nothing-burger resolutions, half of them have to run again.
ReplyDeleteDistrict 4 is also two years only, for now.
DeleteJack...time to throw your hat in the ring. Please.
ReplyDeleteSpot on summary Jack.
ReplyDelete