Keith Wilson for mayor?
I see that the Portland business types held a debate last week among three candidates for Portland mayor: Rene Gonzalez, Carmen Rubio, and... wait for it... Keith Wilson.
Who?
The organizers say they chose Wilson because he's one of the top three campaign fundraisers. Left out of the event was city commissioner Mingus Mapps, whom I would have expected to see being given a podium and a microphone.
I hate it when halfway through an election campaign, people stop talking about any candidates other than the ones who have raised the most money. Especially here in Portland, where we, the city's taxpayers, blow millions financing campaigns of every Tom, Dick, and Harry who say they've raised money from the little people. There are actually 19 official candidates for Portland mayor.
Anyway, be that as it may, suddenly this Wilson guy is on people's radar screens, and a reader has asked me what I think. I hadn't thought about him. I'm pretty sure I'm going to blacken a circle for Gonzalez, but what about Wilson, too, in the "rank choice" foolishness? Could he and Speedy G. be the quinella?
Looking at Wilson's background and credentials, what he said in the debate, and his website, here, I'd say he is worth a serious look. He faces an uphill battle against name recognition, but is he the best person to be mayor? Readers, please sound off.
He did a Reddit AMA yesterday: https://www.reddit.com/r/Portland/s/berX5Njolu
ReplyDeleteClick “answered” to cut through the comments to his direct answers.
He seems pretty strong on the homeless/livability answers and fluffy or too diplomatic on the rest. Enough to get one of my bubbles as it stands.
Wilson is the only bubble that I’m planning to fill in for mayor.
ReplyDeleteEveryone I’ve encountered is rooting for him.
ReplyDeleteThe anti-Rubio strategy is:
ReplyDeleteNeither her or Gonzo get 50%
Wilson voters put Rene as their #2 choice and vice versa
When Wilson is eliminated, enough of those votes go over to Rene to push him over 50% (or vice versa)
Obviously if she just cruises outright or there are Wilson/Rubio voters, this doesn’t happen
I don't think she's going to cruise at this point given the vehicular debacle(s), but maybe it'll blow over by November?
DeletePROTIP: Do not try to "game" ranked-choice" voting. Your best bet is to fill in one and ONLY ONE bubble, and that bubble should be your first choice. But, if you still have the itch to fill in more than one bubble, rank your choices in the order of your preference.
ReplyDeleteGiven the mathematics of ranked choice voting, Wilson is playing a well-known game with the voting system. When "leading candidates" are in competitive (read, antagonistic ) races, as happened in Alaska, then the second "safe" choice will win on the second or third round of vote-shifting. It's the well-known defect--call it the "nice guy" problem...just one of many unintnded consequences of the scheme championed by rich people in other states, and why Alaska willl probably repeal RCV in November.
ReplyDeleteIt's safe to say that Gonzo will not hit 50% on the first round; no one who wants Rubio (darling of the nonprofits and unions) will rank Gonzo anywhere; which means that our uninformed voters (thanks Bottomly/Zusman) will simply mark slot two or three with someone they vaguely know and who hasn't made any waves.
What the Gonzo/ Rubio voters don't understand is that their votes in secondary rounds will be frozen--only votes for sure losers will. be active and moving up to second and third choices. Another defect of RCV nobody wants to talk about.
Bingo--Wilson.
Another Ted Wheeler.
With luck, this is how Viva Las Vegas (Liv Osthus) becomes mayor. If she gets enough second or third ranks and the others beat each other up, it could happen. And given the weak mayor system, I don't think it will matter that much-- except it will expose the flaws of the whole RCV scheme.
DeleteThis is actually how Mingus becomes our next mayor.
DeleteWilson reminds me of another rich guy who promised to solve homelessness in an unrealistic time: Ted Wheeler. He keeps saying that if we provide emergency nighttime shelter to "unsheltered souls," our arrest rate will plummet. I'm sorry, the issue (and solutions) are not that simple. 70% of Portland's homeless are service resistant and already rejecting the shelter options we're offering them.
ReplyDeleteKeith is a thoughtful decent guy. I think his plan on homelessness is a bit naive (full disclosure: I work in what most on this blog would refer to as the non-profit industrial complex - Director of one of those orgs supported historically by this underdog charity pool actually). But Keith comes at this sincerely and decently and lacks the Trumpian approach to homelessness espoused by Gonzalez and may be open to learning more an adapting - he does really care and is not just posturing to gain support from the Blue Trumpers around Pdx. I find it fascinating how many Blue pols and voters here in Pdx lean to Trump's approach to homelessness and crime and away from the consistent Biden/Harris message that criminalization and law enforcement don't end homelessness - but again, I am a biased profiteer working for decades on this complex and difficult issue that I now see Trump/Gonzalez will solve. It's just like the border and Gaza - easy! Please don't be fooled. Camping bans, arresting homeless people who won't accept shelter or treatment beds, denying people tents and tarps . . .these are not strategies or solutions - they are postures tilted at the blood lust to just "do something" about a complex, humanitarian problem well-proven to be mostly a housing issue. Note that the states with lowest rates of homelessness: West Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana - also have the lowest rents and some of the highest rates of opiod addiction and overdose.
DeleteNice try, but you don't have to be a Trumper to detest what's happened to Portland. What Portland did with 110 and normalized street camping would never have been tolerated in West Virginia, Mississippi, or Louisiana. It is why we became a magnet for junkies and the mentally ill. The pendulum here swung wildly to the left; it's time for it to move almost as wildly in the other direction to get the city back on a normal course.
DeleteWhy is Mingus Mapps not in the top tier of the race? Rubio's political career is over, Gonzalez's political career should be over too considering the questionable use of city funds. Has Mingus done something egregious? Or is he too liberal for corporate Portland?
ReplyDeleteAnother neo-Wheeler wimp. Given the weird RCV voting scheme, which no one understands (except the thugs who attached it to the city charter), he'll probably fluke in on the third round. (Round? Whazzat????)
ReplyDelete