Trumpy Joe breaks into his sprint


It was a relatively good day for Joe Kent, the MAGA candidate for Congress up in the 'Couve. In votes counted today, he reduced the lead of his opponent, Maria Gluesenkamp Perez, from 10,273 to 5882, a 4391-vote gain.

His problem, though, is that he's running out of uncounted votes in friendly places. He picked up 2199 in Lewis County today, but they say they're about done, with only 380 ballots left to count. In Cowlitz County, they counted about 5700 votes today, and Kent gained by 1233. But Cowlitz says it has only 6500 left to go.

In Clark County, a stronghold for Perez until now, today's count, about 25,000, was pretty much a dead heat, with Kent gaining 126 votes. They say they have 45,000 left to count there, and so what's left in Clark will decide the outcome of the race. Kent will probably have to win that last batch by 4000 or so to win the election. I don't think he can do it, but anything's possible.

Comments

  1. Perfect analysis. Today's ballots were redder election day ballots. He'll pick up a few K in what's left of Cowlitz and south Thurston, but if he keeps trading baskets in Clark, he won't be able to do this. (My math has her winning by about a thousand when the last ballots are counted.)

    Problem is he was on Steve Bannon's podcast today intimating vote fraud. I do worry about Proud Boys running around my home city for a while if it's a close election for Perez.

    Still, I am pretty stoked--never thought this could happen.

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  2. Only in 'merica can we slow walk votes for days and days.

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    Replies
    1. It's the only country in the world where a race like this could possibly be a toss-up.

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    2. Do you imagine that the counting is done when a result is published on election night?

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  3. He could pick up about 2000 in Thurston County if their 35000 ballots are proportional to their congressional districts.

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  4. There is not much of Thurston in the district.

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  5. 11.3% https://www2.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/congressional-district-counts.aspx

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    Replies
    1. That is, 11.3% of Thurston is in district 3.

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    2. Even if he gets 2,000 there, he can't win without winning the rest of Clark by a couple of thousand at least. And I'm not seeing it.

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    3. Traded baskets again in Clark! I can't believe it, but the math says I won't have a Proud Boy apologist representing me. Holy canoli.

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