Perez gets much closer to the W

They counted around 15,000 votes in Clark County, Washington today. In the Third Congressional District, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez gained 18 votes on Trumpy Joe Kent. Her lead now stands at 4977. 

It's hard to tell exactly how many ballots remain to be counted district-wide, but based on what the counties have posted on their websites, I'd say there are about 13,000 left, including Clark's estimated 5000. To make up his 4977-vote deficit, Kent would need to get at least 8989 of the remaining 13,000. In other words, he'd need to get more than 69 percent of the remaining votes. It seems unlikely.

Based on the last few days, Clark County's remaining ballots seem likely to be split evenly. That would mean Kent would need to make up his 4977 out of just 8000. That would require him to get more than 81 percent of what's left outside of Clark. Now I think you're talking the impossible.

There are still about 2300 votes outstanding in Cowlitz County, and 25,000 in Thurston, although the Third District may account for only about 12 percent of what's left in Thurston (or 3060). Pacific County, where MGP leads, says it still has 2386 to go. Skamania says it has 125 votes to go, and Wahkiakum only 100. 

I've thought since Tuesday night that Kent is toast, at least for this election. Today's count reinforces that belief.

UPDATE, 5:10 p.m.: I didn't know Thurston County was working on this today, but they just turned in about 1100 new votes. Kent outscored Perez by 356, trimming her lead to 4621 district-wide. That's 65.5 percent to 33.8 percent today in Thurston, which still says it has about 25,000 left to count. By crude math, that would mean about 3000 to count in the Third District. If Kent gets two thirds of them, as appears likely, he will reduce the gap by 1000. 

Meanwhile, various media are calling it for Perez. You saw it here first.