Marie, the dawn is breaking

Amateur numbers:

They counted 24,474 votes in Washington's Third Congrerssional District, in and around the 'Couve, yesterday (Friday). Trumpy Joe Kent cut the lead of his opponent, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, by only 158 votes. She's still ahead by 4959, district-wide, at the end of Friday.

They're down to 20,000 left to count in Clark County, which has been a virtual dead heat in late balloting. Nearby Lewis County, Trumpy Joe Country, apparently has only 380 votes outstanding. In Cowlitz County, there are 2300; Kent will get something like two thirds of them. What would that do for him? It would cut MGP's lead by around 750 more votes.

Thurston County, home of perhaps the reddest necks around, has an estimated 35,000 votes left uncounted, but only about 13 percent of the Thurston votes so far have been from the Third District. That crude math would leave about 4500 votes left in the district in Thurston, and Kent would win those, at best something like 3600 to 900. Which nets him 2700 votes. 

The rest of the counties in the district are dribs and drabs at this point.

Even with the pickups just noted, Kent's still short by 1500. Can he get there in the last batch of Clark votes? I'm still thinking no.

It appears the vote-counters in Clark are working today, Saturday. Many thanks to them. The next scheduled count drop there is today at 4 p.m. That might seal it for even the most cautious pundits.


  1. I hear that Marie has won. Good for her. Let Joe go shoot his guns somewhere in private.


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