Like I said, Drazan could win

A new poll shows Republican Christine Drazan a percentage point ahead of Democrat Tina Kotek in the race for Oregon governor. Betsy Johnson, the independent, is a distant third.

As I wrote a couple of months ago, Drazan may win. I predicted then that she would wind up with somewhere between 30 percent and 40 percent of the vote, and I guessed 35. If fringe candidates picked up another 3 percent, I said, Kotek would have to beat Johnson 36 percent to 26 in order to become governor.

The new poll shows Drazan at 32 percent, lower than my guess. But with Kotek leading Johnson by 31 percent to 18 percent, 19 percent of voters are still unaccounted for. 

Let's say of that 19 percent, 3 percent end up not voting, or voting for fringe candidates. That leaves 16 percent of the vote still up for grabs. If that 16 percent splits the same way the decided voters did in the poll, the final numbers would be Drazan 38 percent, Kotek 37 percent, Johnson 22 percent. And although beating Johnson handily, by 15 percentage points, Kotek would still lose.

You can bet this will be the Kotek people's rallying cry from here on out: "A vote for Johnson is a vote for Drazan." But that kind of thinking didn't save Gore, nor did it save Hillary. Maybe the Democrats should have nominated somebody more "electable."

And of course, the Drazan people will be saying, "A vote for Johnson is a vote for Kotek." Once a candidate is running as far behind as Johnson apparently is, voting for them can easily be painted as throwing your vote away. You are offered a clothespin for your nose and an extremist to vote for. The old lesser-of-two-evils routine. I stopped buying that a while ago.


  1. Dare I ask who you'll be voting for in November? I think I'll opt out of this year's governor's race altogether. I really, really dislike all three candidates.

  2. Only one choice if you want to see anything change for the better. It is nice to know the name-callers have moved on from "racists" to the now popular "fascists". Still idiotic to blanket label anyone to whom you disagree, but baby steps in cry baby culture.

  3. In my youth, both parties celebrated God, Family and Country.

    My, how things have changed.

  4. It seems that Betsy is attracting more disgruntled Democrats than Republicans, taking more votes from Kotek than Drazan. Say what you will about Republicans, but they are more united. If I were a betting man I think I’d pick Drazan at this point. I read once that the reason we’ve never had a third party or independent president get elected who runs as a centrist/moderate is because most people are closet partisans, even though they might say they’re independent. I’d personally like to see Betsy win but it doesn’t look like there’s much of a chance.

  5. I'm more interested in the (unreleased) cross tabs than the top lines of this poll. At this point, the betting markets believe that Kotek is the prohibitive favorite even though (I think) more than half the voters regard her unfavorably. If Kotek wins, Oregon will continue to circle the drain and even more counties will vote for annexation into Idaho.

  6. I wanted to vote for Betsy but the thought of hearing that cartoon chipmunk voice of that woman drives me insane. I am starting to think Kotex. Wouldn't be the first time I voted for some one I couldn't stand.


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