The 411 from 538

It always bugs me that there isn't much reliable poll data, or even unreliable poll data, made public during election campaigns. You know the candidates and ballot measure parties are polling furiously the whole time, but they keep most of the results secret. So we observers are left scratching our heads.

One outfit that does publicize what it thinks is FiveThirtyEight. Apparently it doesn't engage in much polling of its own, but it claims to know a lot about the polls that are available and the people who run them, and it interpolates the data its pundits see.

It's all kind of mysterious, but for what it's worth, they have Kotek winning the Oregon governorship, the Republican Chavez-DeRemer winning the Battle of the Hyphenateds in the reconfigured Fifth Congressional District, and the Democrat Salinas winning in the new Sixth. If they're right, despite the careful gerrymander by the Democrats, the GOP will in fact pick up the add-on seat in Oregon.

In the 'Couve, they have Herrera Beutler as the prohibitive favorite, but of course, over there they haven't even had their primary yet. Their ballots are supposed to be mailed out tonorrow.

The whole 538 thing looks kinda shaky, but that's the best that I can dig up at this point. Are there other polls that I'm missing?


  1. The McLeod-Skinner folks swear up and down that they're organized and prepared. I haven't seen any evidence to support this. So, I guess we'll see.

    Chavez-DeRemer has been very closely aligned with the Koch-Walker wing of the GOP for the last several years. She's learning the Trump songbook. We'll see which side she chooses for the election.

    The biggest race for this Democrat is county clerk. We MUST dump Hall. Failure to do that will turn 2024 into a dumpster fire. I'm going to put my energy there. If it means we get two years of a Republican in the seat while Democrats get their acts together, so be it. It'll be worth it.

  2. On the Oregon Governor race, their model doesn't seem to understand that it is a 3-way race. They might be right, but I think their model is way underrating Betsy's chances (sub 1% just doesn't seem realistic).

  3. I am waiting for the governor debates. I have a feeling that lot of people will be tuning in. If not for the sheer entertainment value of it all, but also for self-preservation. I think that Oregon is ‘finally’ waking up to the nightmare of its own making. Well at least I hope that they are, but getting one’s hopes up in Oregon at this point is.....well there really is no point in doing so.


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