Well, we're waiting here in Allentown

We've gone through Thursday afternoon in Pennsylvania, and things have moved in Biden's favor today. The official state website showed Trump leading by 78,422.

According to that site, as of the end of the normal business day back there, there were 326,348 mail ballots left to count. To get ahead of Trump, Biden would need 202,385 of those, or 62 percent. That would leave Trump with 123,963 of them, or 38 percent.

Can Biden get there? Based on my rough look at the situation, about half of the mail votes appear to be outstanding in blue counties, but there are dribs and drabs in red counties all over that add up to roughly the other half.

Statewide, of the mail ballots counted so far, 76.9 percent have been for Biden and 23.1 perccnt for Trump. If you apply those percentages to the remaining uncounted mail ballots, Biden gets 250,962 and Trump gets 75,386. Biden wins the state by a little under 50,000.

These back-of-the-envelope calculations are hazardous. If anybody out there has a better analysis, I'm all ears.


  1. Think we got it https://www.lehighcounty.org/Portals/0/PDF/ElectionSummary_13_1.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3TuLul3O_Du805ZIgst8GCUA7qHvehxDcVTLt1gqUn4FmuA52MkRs01U0


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