Pennsylvania looking great for Biden

I'm still watching the Presidential election results trickle in from Pennsylvania. My goodness, it's taking them a long time to process the mail-in ballots. I guess they must count them by hand on an abacus or something. As one guy on Twitter put it, "Less talky talky. more county county!"

As of this late afternoon hour, Trump's lead, which was 700,000 or so when I despaired so bitterly last night, is now down to 239,942. A great sign right there.

It gets better. The Pennsylvania secretary of state says there are still 1,066,963 mail-in ballots to be counted across the state. A lot of them are in Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold.



And here's the clincher. Look at the party affiliations of the mail-in ballots statewide:

If you run the numbers using those percentages, of the remaining 1,088,963 mail-in votes, Joe gets 706,285 and Caligula gets only 258,211. That's a 448,075 margin, which more than makes up the deficit of 239,942. Biden takes the state by about 200,000.

At the rate they're going, Pennsylvania won't announce a final unofficial tally for days. But my best guess now is that Biden and Harris have won the state, and apparently, the election.

UPDATE, an hour later: Trump's Pennsylvania lead just dropped to 213,379.

UPDATE, early evening: Trump lead down to 197,849. 

But!  New figures show 763,311 mail ballots left to be counted. Using party percentages, Biden wins those 495,072 to 180,993. By that reckoning, he wins the state by 116,230. Quite a bit under the 200,000 I figured late this afternoon. We must stay tuned.

UPDATE, that night: Trump lead down to 176,498. Not sure how many mail ballots left. The state hasn't updated the 763,311 number.

Comments

  1. One thing I know for sure: The Republicans have no cause to complain about the electoral fraud going on in 2020. Back in the day, Bush and Cheney stole Florida and it wasn't the hanging chads either. The Governor of Florida - also known as George's brother Jeb - purged the voter rolls. One company had done it but the Bush brothers wanted more so they paid big money to have a real dent put in the Democratic voter rolls. It involved a state official named Katherine Harris. That's how they got close enough to steal Florida. If you were a Democrat voting in Florida and your name was the same as a felon in another state you would be tossed off the rolls and you wouldn't even find out until you went to vote. Things like that but numbering in the thousands.
    Next time around the action was in Ohio. During the night there would be malfunctions of the computer system and when it came back up the Kerry and Bush votes had been reversed. Michael Connell was the Bush aide involved with the computers and he was forced to talk years later. Unfortunately on the way to testify his little plane decided to drop out of the sky. When you see Karl Rove sitting there on TV, you are looking at a lot of secrets, believe me. Think of it: The 8 years of Bush and Cheney didn't need to happen. It took a crime to make them happen.
    This time around the shenanigans are obvious again: wards in Wisconsin where there were more votes than registered voters. Mysterious 91% voter turnouts. And my favorite: A candidate in Joe Biden who was having trouble drawing enough of a crowd to fill a mini-van suddenly becoming the most popular candidate in the history of the United States.
    Of course it's a dangerous time because nobody knows how far Trump will take getting ripped off on this. And he was - you'd have to be childish not to see it. But one thing I'm not interested in is hearing the Republicans bitch about it. Not after Bush and Cheney - 8 of the longest years of my life. What's that line Hyman Roth said in the Godfather, Part 2? "This is the business we've chosen."

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  2. Jack, as for your statement, "And here's the clincher. Look at the party affiliations of the mail-in ballots statewide."
    That would mean something if you knew they voted strictly along party lines. As Miami Dade County, a Democratic stronghold in Florida, proved, Trump wasn't just getting registered Republicans to vote for him. Assuming he was only getting the Republican votes in Pennsylvania is flawed logic.

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    1. No question, it's an assumption. There are Lincoln Project Republicans, too, even in Pennsylvania. I'm just playing the odds to keep from going crazy with the uncertainty.

      That said, in Florida, the Democrats suffered the Cuban/"socialism" thing, which I don't think is a major issue in Pennsylvania.

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